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2026 Logistics Reset

Air stayed resilient. Ocean normalized. Warehousing split. Energy came back. 2025 was the year of disruption. 2026 is becoming the year of repricing.

 

 

Air Cargo Stayed Resilient

Global air cargo demand increased 3.4% in 2025. International operations rose 4.2%. Speed, e-commerce and high-value cargo are still supporting air freight demand.

 

 

 

Ocean Freight Normalized

Risk did not disappear. Drewry’s World Container Index reached $2,172 per 40ft container on 19 March 2026. Rates are below crisis peaks, but corridor instability is still shaping cost, routing and timing.

 

 

Warehousing Is No Longer Expanding Evenly

In Europe, quarterly logistics take-up stabilized around 5–6 million sq m in 2025. That is well below the 9.6 million sq m peak seen in late 2021. Demand has not disappeared. It is becoming more selective.

 

 

Energy Is Back in the Operating Model

The WTO warns that sustained high oil prices tied to Middle East conflict could cut 0.5 percentage points from expected 2026 merchandise trade growth of 1.9%. Energy is no longer just a macro variable. It is a logistics variable again.

 

 

Capacity Is No Longer the Whole Story

Air is holding. Ocean is repricing. Warehousing is separating. Energy is back. In 2026, competitive advantage is built by control, location and execution.

 

 

AI, War, Labor, Energy: The New Supply Chain Map

 

In 2026, supply chains are no longer being shaped by efficiency alone. They are being redefined by AI, war, labor pressure and energy volatility. This editorial explores how those forces are changing global trade, operating models and investment decisions.

 

Fatih SARI